YouGov forecast Reform UK success in Banbury
26/09/2025
The latest modelling has been released, 14 months after the General Election
Banbury would elect a Reform UK MP were an election called today – that’s according to the latest YouGov modelling of voter intentions across the country.
They forecast Nigel Farage’s party would secure 27 percent of the vote, with Labour, who historically won the former Conservative stronghold last year, coming second with 23 percent.
The Conservatives are predicted to achieve 21 percent of the vote share in third place, with the Lib Dems, who currently control both the district and county council fourth with 14 percent.
This is the second YouGov MRP model since the 2024 election. Across the country it projects Reform UK would win 311 seats, just 15 short of a majority.
The latest modelling represents an increase of 40 seats for Nigel Farage’s party compared to YouGov’s projection in June.
In South Northamptonshire, where Reform UK have control of the local council, the Conservatives are forecast to hold on to the seat by a slim majority, with 29 percent of the vote share. This is just a single percentage point ahead of Reform UK.
Published: by the Banbury FM News Team
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