Analysis suggests Banbury one of most likely Conservative seats to be lost at General election

13/02/2024

The Banbury constituency has elected a Conservative MP at every election since 1922

Banbury will be one of the most marginal seats in the United Kingdom for the Conservatives at the next General Election and likely to change from being a Conservative seat to Labour, according to an analysis published by Policito today. 

They took a YouGov model of what 2019’s election results would have looked like, measured across the new constituency boundaries within which the next election will be fought.   In that situation the gap between Labour and the Conservatives here would have been less than 1 per cent.

Politico’s analysis puts Banbury as the third most marginal Conservative seat in the country.

The Banbury constituency in its various guises has elected a Conservative MP at every election since 1922.   Victoria Prentis was elected in 2015 and currently serves as Attorney General in Rishi Sunak’s government.

With the existing Banbury constituency being split under the boundary changes, Mrs Prentis has chosen to stand in the north part of the area, with the map redrawn to include Chipping Norton, alongside Banbury and the surrounding villages.

Labour have already announced that Sean Woodcock will stand again Mrs Prentis.   Mr Woodcock is currently the leader of the Labour group at Cherwell District Council.

In the southern part of the existing Banbury constituency, Policto’s analysis points to a Liberal Democrat win for the new Bicester area.


Published: by Banbury FM Newsteam

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